A recent Science magazine article developed probabilistic models of economic impact on US regions with climate change. The short answer is the South and the Poor will experience the worst negative economic impacts.
The Times summary article is here and the graphic is shown below.
Compare this map with the ethnic diversity map (immediately below) from my Barbell Nation post – they maps look by and large the same, with the exception of the north central states.
Now remember this as you read below.
But Why is that Also the Locus of Climate Change Denial?
Arlie Hochschild’s Strangers in Their Own Land (New Press, 2016) is the best explanation of what she calls the “great paradox” of political beliefs contradicting voters apparent self interest. Hochschild spent years speaking with Tea Party activists in Louisianna and eventually deduced a “deep story” of their political beliefs. Quoting here from the Times book review (Sept 2016):
Hochschild detects other passions and assembles what she calls the “deep story” — a “feels as if” story, beyond facts or judgment, that presents her subjects’ worldview,
It goes like this:
“You are patiently standing in a long line” for something you call the American dream. You are white, Christian, of modest means, and getting along in years. You are male. There are people of color behind you, and “in principle you wish them well.” But you’ve waited long, worked hard, “and the line is barely moving.”
Then “Look! You see people cutting in line ahead of you!” Who are these interlopers? “Some are black,” others “immigrants, refugees.” They get affirmative action, sympathy and welfare — “checks for the listless and idle.” The government wants you to feel sorry for them.
And who runs the government? “The biracial son of a low-income single mother,” and he’s cheering on the line cutters. “The president and his wife are line cutters themselves.” The liberal media mocks you as racist or homophobic. Everywhere you look, “you feel betrayed.”
Hochschild runs the myth past her Tea Party friends.
“You’ve read my mind,” Lee Sherman said.
“I live your analogy,” Mike Schaff said.
The first irony is that the Science article makes clear, these very people who oppose the Environmental Protection Agency, because it is part of the federal government that is enabling these “line cutters,” will suffer the most as the environment changes (see chart below).
The second irony is that the people who express their outrage at “line jumpers” generally live in areas with the least ethnic diversity. So while their percpetion of “line jumpers” is surely potent, the perception would seem to be mostly based on media images of distance US citizens vs. experiences with their neighbors.
Geek Out with the Science Article Graphics
The researchers multi-factor graphics are shown here.
Read the full Science article, here.