Term limits misses the point of what is wrong with our electoral system.
A dear, and wrong-headed Libertarian, friend recently promoted term limits on politicians to fix our nation’s political problems. I told him it won’t work; at best it is missing the point of what is wrong, and at worst, it will make our corrupt system worse. He challenged me to suggest ways to “fix” our broken political system. That is a fair request, so here is my sincere set of suggestions written without fear nor favor to incumbents nor dominate parties.
At base, the logic underpinning the term limit argument is that morally “good” candidates become morally corrupted “bad” incumbents. Politicians come to like the perks and power and sell their souls to keep their office incumbency. While there is certainly some amount of personal venality and ego that motivates politicians to aggressively seek reelection, I don’t believe they gained those traits only after sipping inside-the-Beltway water. Jacksonian, yeoman farmer politicians no longer exist in 21st century America, if they ever did. Even the first time candidates must be “career politicians” to succeed in our very expensive election system. What better expert on politician’s motivation than Mitch McConnell stated it well in his memoir:
The truth is that very few of us expect to be at the center of world-changing events when we first file for office, and personal ambition usually has a lot more to do with it than most of us are willing to admit. That was certainly true for me, and I never saw the point in pretending otherwise. – The Long Game: A Memoir.
[Quoted in New York Review of Books, review by Robert Kaiser.]
It is not being in Washington that corrupts politicians, it is getting to Washington that corrupts (would-be) politicians. We have a system where too few Americans vote and the campaign costs for winning those few votes is obscenely high. The necessity of relentlessly pursuing rich donors’ money is the original sin that corrupts our politicians – both incumbents and wanna bes. Again, let’s listen to political expert Mitch McConnell, from a recent book review:
McConnell writes candidly about how his own career depended on unfettered access to campaign cash: “I never would have been able to win my [first run for the Senate in 1984] if there had been a limit on the amount of money I could raise and spend.” His rationale here is telling:
The only way a guy like me had a chance—a guy with no real political connections [after six years running the state’s largest county] and no money [in fact he was a champion fund-raiser], no strong political apparatus to rely on, holding views opposed by the mainstream media and organized political groups like the labor unions—was to get around the inherent advantages of the liberal majority party [four years into the Reagan presidency] by raising enough money to take my message directly to voters.
Whatever the honesty or intellectual merit of this analysis, the implicit advice he was giving to himself was sound, and he took it to heart in 1984 when he challenged Walter (“Dee”) Huddleston, a two-term incumbent in the Senate. McConnell raised nearly $1.8 million, a large amount for a Senate race in those days.
Weak and transient politicians are absolutely beholden to powerful institutionalized forces (lobbyists representing moneyed interests) that resided in Washington long before the politician arrived and will remain there after the politician leaves.
In contrast to term limits advocates belief, politicians’ self-interest in remaining in office, properly constrained, is the single best protection of our democracy. We can view the political class — properly empowered and yet properly beholden to their electorate — as a counterweight to entrenched institutional power. If politicians survival in office is actually contingent every 2, 4, 6 years on appealing to the majority of people in their district, nation, state, respectively, then the institutionalized manipulators of Washington influence will be somewhat constrained. This admittedly requires a committed electorate, but so too does any theory of term limits, solving the problem of unrepresentative politicians. My argument below tries to align incumbents’ self interest with that of their electorate, by limiting the influence, power, and hidden access of entrenched institutional interests and making voter engagement easier. Robert Michels’ “iron law of oligarchy” — that bureaucratization and specialization result in even democratic organizations becoming oligarchic — is very likely true. But it is naive to think that we can undo the level of modern world social and economic complexity that requires bureaucracy and specialization, therefore we should seek to align the bureaucrats’ and specialists’ self-interests with the electorate’s interests, as much as possible.
A world of caution. I do not equate “money” and “voice”, as is often the case among the right in our country. Many conservatives argue that political voice is just another form of property right — the more property you have, the more voice you can have — protected by the 1st Amendment. I don’t agree with this assumption. I associate “voice” with the right to vote – and we only get one, equally weighted vote per person. If you don’t agree with this foundational point, much of what will follow will fall on deaf ears.
I propose 10 fixes to make national politicians more responsive to the full arrange of citizens they represent. These fall into a few categories: make elections competitive; reduce the cost of running for office; make voting easier; limit the power of lobbyists; and open up the electoral process to third-parties. After each proposal I list “whose ox is gored”, to make explicit what encrusted constituency or interest group will lead the objections to each recommendations.
While many will want to nit-pick at the practicality or technical implication of any one of these recommendations, it is important to view these as a collective program. Our problems are the result of the structural evolution of our electoral system, decades and even centuries in the making. No one or two things will fix our problem. Only a comprehensive, systemic change to the structure of elections in our country will have a chance of materially improving our problem. I do not hold these recommendations as the panacea, but the minimum conditions for reclaiming a truly representative liberal democracy.
Make Elections Competitive Again
(1) End Gerrymandering.
The sculpting of congressional districts to protect incumbents is the foundation of a broken representative system. Gerrymandered districts reduce competition of ideas and politicians. It leads to the perpetual disenfranchisement of sizable minorities of district voters. If they don’t have to fear the minority opposition party voters, candidates come to only fear challenges internal to their own majority party. This prompts the zealotry and unwillingness to compromise seen by both parties today.
The chart below shows the shrinking number of contested congressional races in the last 25 years, which tracks with our politics getting more sclerotic. State legislatures are the political culprits here. A few states, like Arizona, have experimented with less partisan redistricting methodologies, with some success.
Arizona have moved to using a nonpartisan committee of experts to define congressional districts, resulting in (statistically speaking) demonstrably more competitive elections. See an article on that here.
Whose ox gets gored? All current incumbents. This includes white suburban safe Republican district office holders and black urban safe district office holders. Just as we shouldn’t have “protected” party or class districts, nor too should we have protected black or latino districts. Minority candidates (whether white, black, or brown relative to their district’s racial composition) need to win their constituency via moderation and group boundary-spanning appeals, just like the next candidate.
Reduce the Cost of Running for Office.
(2) Shorten the Election Cycle.
We don’t need a two-year long campaign cycle. This just serves to drive up the entry costs of would be candidates. No other liberal democracy takes this long to elect their leader (England election cycles typically last 6 weeks). We should have a 26-week presidential and congressional election cycle, mandated by federal law.
Working backwards from a November election:
- Parties nominate their tickets around Labor Day (first week of September)
- Party conventions in August.
- Rotating, regional primaries and caucuses in the late Spring and Summer
Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary, Super Tuesday etc. will all be replaced with a rotating, regional system that gives different states, regions, and urban/rural, and population clusters, a similar chance for being first and thereby serving as the first filter on candidates.
The states would be aggregated into perhaps 6 regional groups:
A random lottery determines the order of the regions every four years. Each regional primary is 3 weeks long, for a total of 15-weeks.
In this way, no state or region gets a permanent “first filter” priority. Clustering primaries and caucuses into regional events allows candidates to focus their resources, thereby reducing campaign costs. Candidates ignoring the smaller states and only chasing the votes in the bigger regional states (e.g. Rhodes Island) will do so at their peril come convention time. It will make current discrepancies no worse. Shorter election cycles will reduce the ballooning cost of elections (Congressional seats costing on average $1.3M and Senate seats $10.4M, as of 2013 according to the NY Times).
Whose ox is gored? Iowa and New Hampshire hoteliers and state-level party poobahs- two states that have very limited representativeness to the majority population in the nation.
(3) Give Candidates Free Airtime
Give qualified candidates for primaries and general elections free airtime. The airwaves are public property leased to the networks. Let’s take some of that public property back for an important public good – quality elections.
Each viable candidate gets one hour to use as they see fit. Use random lotteries to assign 1-hour of prime time broadcast spots to each candidate. Lotteries and randomization will distribute the “bad luck” of any candidate’s time being slotted against a popular program or any one network bearing the burden of too much lost ad revenue.
Further, using the same public broadcast rights reclamation method, each candidate should be offered a 90-minute interview format prime time session with a panel of two legitimate network and/or press reporters. This would be modeled after English 1:1 interviews or Charlie Rose. The primary benefit is a candidate cannot hide in meaningless platitudes on a topic for 90 minutes. An independent candidate interview commission can operate similar to the presidential debate commission to pick dates, threshold qualifying candidates and legitimate press interrogators.
The current form of information poor candidate debates and town halls can continue, in addition to the above.
Whose ox is gored? – Network and local broadcasters who currently provide little or no public service broadcasting and how will be forced every four years to provide perhaps 50 hours collectively per region. It seems like a reasonable patriot duty for their shareholders to be granted the public airwaves monopoly.
Make Voting Easier.
See generally the Brennan Center infographic on making voting easier.
(4) End First Tuesday in November Election Day.
This is an archaic artifact of 1848 agrarian society, when elections were arranged so as not to conflict with church day and market day for the majority farming population. Both the regional primaries and national general election should allow voting up to 3 weeks in advance of an election that ends on a Saturday. Incumbents want to suppress voting, because they got elected via a small number of die-hard voters. I want to open up voting to all eligible voters — many of which have a hard time getting to the polls on weekdays. Let’s fix that. It is important to have a clear end to the voting period, to bring finitude to an election. This two-week window will provide that with a firm end at, say, 5PM local time on the designated Saturday.
Whose ox is gored? Local government officials and volunteer election day workers. The disruption to their lives will increase from one day to two plus weeks, but convention and convenience should not stand in the way of preserving our democracy.
(5) On-Line Voting
Several states have demonstrated the safety and effectiveness of mail-in ballot and electronic/internet voting. It is quaint and fun, but unnecessary to force voters to drive to their local school gym or fire station to cast their ballot. If we can manage the nation’s and our personal finances and medical records on-line, we can do elections on-line too. The legitimate concerns about identity theft and vote counting glitches pre-existed any on-line voting and they remain real but are not exacerbated by on-line voting.
Whose ox is gored? The only imaginable defender of our archaic ways are the voting machine manufacturers and evidenceless defenders of the way we have always done things.
Limit the Power of Lobbyists
(6) Increase Congressional Stuff Budgets.
The Gingrich Revolution dramatically reduced the size of personal and committee congressional staffs in a theatrical show of cutting the federal budget. But this failed to halt the budget growth and did increase the power of lobbyists relative to the congressional politicians. We are now in the age of lobbyists drafting proposed laws for their congressperson to present as if written by their now weakened staff. While counter-intuitive, there is an argument to be made that well staffed congressional back offices increase elected officials power relative to the lobbyists pressuring them. This is discussed most recently by Jonathan Rauch in the Atlantic.
Whose ox is gored? The Washington Beltway institutionalized power brokers and their lobbyists.
(7) Require All Campaign and Party Contributions be Transparent.
All contributes in cash or in kind must be documented and publicly available. Contributions from individuals, not-for-profits, and corporations must be traceable back to the original source — no more pass-throughs and opaque “money laundering” of the source of the cash.
If you want to speak up in the public forum, you need to identify yourself. The littering of anonymously authored and distributed pamphlets across the town square is not protected speech. However, the very same political screed is protected speech if attributable to a author. Because the author has free speech protection, not the speech itself.
Similarly, money, as “speech” should not be allowed to be anonymous. It amounts to litter. If a speaker is unwilling to stand up for his/her statements, we have to question if they are making the statements in good faith.
Whose ox is gored? Rich individuals, corporations, trade groups, and to a lesser degree unions who act through thinly or thickly disguised front organizations to attempt to shape public discourse on topics without revealing their identity.
(8) Congressional Staff Calendars Made Public.
All congressional staff and elected officials’ activity, meeting, event, and call calendars are public information and discoverable within 5 days. This is already true for elected officials, this rule only expands it to their staff too. Yes, of course, people will still find a means of cheating, but this will shine light into many more nooks and crannies of lobbyist – congressional interactions, reducing the unlit places where nefarious activity can occur.
The calendars must be made public in a generally accessible, structured data, digital format, to allow quick analysis and sorting and avoid the congressional expense reporting incumbents dirty trick (see for example, here).
I’m not anti-lobbyist per se. I understand that lobbyists can be an efficient conduit of industry points of view to law making elected officials and their staff. I further understand that groups of citizens have a right to “appoint a representative” to represent their collective interests to an elected official. But any group’s rights for collective action ends when the channel of engagement is differentially biased in their favor relative to the number of other constituencies represented by that congressional member.
(9) Record All Lobbyists Meetings with Congressional Staff and Politicians.
Registered lobbyists — people whose jobs are to influence legislation — are already required to be registered. Because of their collective power, we need to be particularly cautious about their undue influence.
Whose ox is gored? Lobbyists and special interests.
Open Up the Election Process to Third Parties
(10) Nationalize and Normalize Ballot and Debate Access Requirements.
Imposing consistent, lower threshold ballot and debate access standards opens up the primary election season to a wider diversity of candidates and political opinions.
The two parties collude to control access to election ballots at the state-level, long before the national elections occur. Between very high petition signature requirements and registration fees, the major parties discourage third party candidates from providing competition. While the US winner take all system discourages third parties in general elections, third party runs during the primary season can serve as an effective jolt to mainstream party complacency (examples include Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, and Ross Perot).
Similarly, the Commission on Presidential Debates, is a dominant party controlled and funded organization. It has no incentive to allow alternative viewpoints to be aired.
Whose ox is gored? The two major parties, who have a shared interest in keeping primary and general elections limited to their own chosen topics and theme.
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I did not include the Common Cause standard solution of limiting overall campaign spending and perhaps even the public funding of campaigns. I believe in getting dark and gray money out of campaigns and I believe in equating speech and votes, not speech and property, so I am sympathetic to not allowing rich people to buy elections via their ability to buy up the airwaves with advertising. I’m just not sure that campaign spending limits are practical and constitutional.
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J. D. Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy has been one of the go-to books for Democrats trying to understand where they lost track of their white working class alliance. While insightful in its own ways, I don’t see how this book relates to where the Democratic Party went wrong, as it offers no explanation of rural white working class despair beyond self blame.
From Vance’s conclusion:
I was able to escape the the worst of my culture’s inheritance. … At every level of my life and in every environment, I have found family and mentors and lifelong friends who supported and enabled me. … But I often wonder: Where would I be without them?
Any chance [Brian, a current hillbilly boy similar to Vance in family background] has lies with the people around him – his family, me, my kin, and the people like us, and the broad community of hillbillies. And if that chance is to materialize, we hillbillies must wake the hell up. Brian’s mom’s death was another shitty card in an already abysmal hand, but there are many cards left to deal: whether his community empowers him with a sense that he can control his own destiny or encourages him to take refuge in resentments at forces beyond his control; whether he can access a church that teaches him lessons of Christian love, family and purpose; whether those people who do step up to positively influence Brian find emotional and spiritual support from their neighbors.
I believe hillbillies are the toughest goddamn people on this earth. … But are we tough enough to do what needs to be done to help a kid like Brian? Are we tough enough to build a church that forces kids like me to engage with the world rather than withdraw from it? Are we tough enough to look ourselves in the mirror and admit that our conduct harms are children?
Public policy can help, but there is no government that can fix these problems for us. … We do need to create a space for the J.D.s and Brians of the world to have a chance. I don’t know what the answer is, precisely, but I know it starts when we stop blaming Obama or Bush or faceless companies and ask ourselves what we can do to make things better (pp. 253-256).
This can be summarized as “buck up, hillbillies; have pride in yourselves; beyond that you’re on your own.” … And, pray for some contingent luck that the right people will come along at the right time of need in your lives.
It’s not clear what audience is writing to when he asks “are we tough enough to do what needs to be done…?” — a sentence written from a Washington Beltway journal office. Is he really expecting his nominal addressees to purchase this $27.99 hardback? No. It is merely a rhetorical device to lay out his view of things. Vance long ago left his nominal addressees (the “we”) and went onto the Marines, university, Yale law school, Washington Beltway political organs and now a Silicon Valley private equity firm. In short, Vance is not part of his rhetorical “we” anymore.
Understanding the causal argument he makes as to why he got out of the dysfunctional cycle and so many of his peers did not will presumably shed light on Vance’s social prescription for solving the problem of Hillbilly rural poverty. If the environment influences children as his statement “our conduct harms are children” (quoted above), makes clear he believes, then how does he explain his avoidance of debilitating harm.
Vance inventories hillbilly world of “truly irrational behavior”: poor spending habits, no sense of thrift, chaotic homes, ungoverned emotional outbursts, no encouragement of education, no work ethic, no modeling of personal work ethic, bad eating and exercise habits, weak and transient parental supervision…; the reader gets the sense that he wanted to go on, but his editor made him stop after two pages.
He then acknowledges that there are “two separate sets of mores and social pressures” — evidence by his no nonsense grandparents and his drug addled mother. Vance’s family were cussin’, drinkin’, fightin’, honery, honor bound people who lived in a hermetic world with sharp divides between insiders and outsiders (his mother had to hide in the basement so that her visiting brother would not see her black eye from marital abuse). But, despite her addictions, his mother, and his grandparents raised him to be curious about the world and knowledge and not associate being smart with being feminine (a very interesting insight into dysfunctional working class culture in the post-industrial age). Vance used that curiosity, drive and some good luck to get out of his rust belt Ohio town and borderline poverty level white community and onto his white collar, elite success. Vance learned what generations of immigrant stock and small town yokels have learned, that the “ties that bind” can be stultifying and smothering and the only option for the ambitious is to get the “hell out of town” to the big city (see, relatedly, sociologist Georg Simmel on the cosmopolitan personality).
Vance avoided the dead end fate of many of his peers by changing the structural conditions of his life:
- He removed himself from dysfunctional social relationships and found new friends and colleagues (Marines, college, law school) that reinforced his better interests
- He got educational credentials that provided social capital skills that gave him purchase in elite national labor markets
- He relocated to a growing urban area that had better job prospects (DC and now Silicon Valley).
All three changes were structural in nature.
Yet Vance’s lecture to his left-behind brethren is devoid of any structural advice and seems largely like an angry son lecturing his estranged family on how crazy they are. The critique may be true (e.g., a hometown warehouse manager finds it impossible to fill a loading dock position that pays comparatively well despite rampant unemployment p. 6), but family Thanksgiving dinner Jeremiads never accomplish anything — especially when delivered in such a looking down your nose at the relatives way as a $27.95 hardback book.
Vance cares about the fate of future young generations who are not lucky enough to have grand parents like his to rescue them from their dysfunctional families. But he offers no suggestions on how the society can provide such rescue options.
He states, “[p]ublic policy can help” but then discounts even that claim by his anecdote of a social worker threatening to take him away from his loving grandparents if they were not deemed fit and certified caregivers. It is unclear what his complaint is about state intervention in child welfare. Because he did not provide a timeline for the social worker’s statement it is unclear if these words were uttered before the social worker met the grandparents or after. The former would seem like a legitimate concern (albeit perhaps too bluntly stated to a fragile youth), the latter may be a sign of a tone-deaf bureaucrat or overly restrictive policies. We don’t know, but Vance let’s us assume the worst of the government worker. Is Vance claiming the state should default to family ties in all circumstances? Would he have wanted that in the period before his grandfather stopped his drinking and whoring and his grandmother felt the need to retaliate for his behavior with her own aggressions? Would Vance want the state’s “hands off of the family” approach for children whose parents are cooking meth in their rural Ohio kitchen?
OK, if not state intervention in this deep structural problems, then what? I think we can all agree that social workers monitoring families and foster care are undesirable conditions. But, they may be the least bad of options available to profoundly at risk children. This is an extreme example, but the general principle applies — if the market and the civil society have failed are we to leave our nation’s children’s future to fate and luck?
Vance flees from any programmatic explanation of his fate, ultimately taking credit for himself and implicitly blaming is left behind peers and future generations like them.
I’m sure a sociologist and a psychologist, sitting in a room together, could explain why I lost interest in drugs, why my grades improved, why I aced the SAT, and why I found a couple of teachers who inspired me to love learning. But what I remember most was that I was happy … and out of that happiness came so many opportunities…” (emphasis in the original, p. 151).
Vance is telling Hillbilly youth, buck up, don’t be depressed.
At what age are we, the citizens of the United States, prepared, as to say to our youngest fellow citizens, “Yeah, life is hard and unfair, deal with it”? — Age 18, Age 15, Age 10, Age 5, Age 2, in utero?
I’m reminded the philosopher John Rawls’ concept of the “original position” – a positive covered by a “veil of ignorance” from which you must specify the rules of justice in a society before you know if you will be an elite or working class member, healthy or ill, young or old, etc. Would Vance have the same “just so story” prescription for success to the problems he identified in rural white culture — be better, buck up, have a thick skin, be happy — if he did not know in advance what family he would be born into? Is there any point in Vance’s moral order when grit and self-sufficiency become merely blaming the son or daughter for the sins of the father and mother?
Is that our, as a nation’s, definition of fairness and justice?
The state of our nation demands a new way of thinking about democracy. I’m less interested in why the Democrats lost this election than to understand how we have come to such a bifurcated society.
A casual morning’s coffee reflection suggests a sobering list of structural problems, related but distinct, and each requiring a diagnosis and resolution.
- We seemingly lack an agreed upon collective identity as a nation, that contains and imposes normative standards on our sub-group conflicts. Dewey’s The Public and It’s Problems (1927), assumed the boundary conditions of the larger “public” body, and focused his analysis on how we bring the rich, local, and contextual mutual regard of the small town to a great nation of 119 million. In 2017, we are roughly three times that size (323 million).
- The “central tendency” of agreed upon truth that largely held in the 20th century is now gone. By “truth” I mean agreement on the laws of the physical and social worlds — the facts — against which, strategies and tactics to change the facts could be debated (here I am using a loose view of Pierce and Dewey’s Pragmatist definition of truth is what inquirers agree is true at any moment in time). Media elites – national and major city newspapers and post-war broadcast media – defined a generally shared narrow spectrum of what they agreed was the “truth”. Importantly, the media elites actively managed this agreed upon definition of truth and the boundaries of who could contest their agreed “truth.” Yeah, I know there are all sorts of problems with the above: (i) Is the Pragmatists’ definition of inquirers’ truth valid (ii) did the 20th century media elites really hold a central tendency of truth; (iii) if so, was that central tendency truth unbiased and representative of the entire society? (I think we all know the answer to this one). While the central tendency of the conversation was distorted, the normative impulse to have a single conversation was important. Today, groups seem to be not just talking past one another but engaging in increasingly separate, intra-group optimized conversations. Persuasion through rhetoric, logic and facts are no longer considered necessary (remember “truthiness” and now look at Trump, Kelly Anne Conway and climate change deniers). There was a lower level of “talking past each other” than appears to be the case today. The question is, was this true? Is a single conversation good? Is it possible to have a single conversation without the distortion of power?
- We don’t know why people vote the way they do. People don’t vote their economic self-interest. So what motivates them? If they are seeking to optimize something (but see below) what are they seeking to optimize? – Religious belief, social morality, collective identity, family and small group cohesion, …?
- Are our citizens rational? Even if they wanted to and claim to, can people calculate what is optimal for themselves? Behavioral Economics suggests that we are not; that we cannot calculate risk; that we cannot think strategically for more than a few minutes at a time.
- Can we put the genie back in the bottle? Now that we are in this state of discourse and democracy highly corroded by market logic, can we ever go back to a stronger balancing assertion of social and political logic and power?
My Reading List
I have a few books on my Q1-2017 Reading List. What’s yours?
Arlie Hochschild Strangers in Their Own Land.
Five-years studying Tea Party friendly working class residents of one of the poorest and highest per capita Federal support recipient states – Louisiana.
George Packer. The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America.
NYTimes review here.
J. D. Vance. Hillbilly Elegy.
See my review here.
NYTimes review here.
Nancy Isenberg. White Trash: The 400-Year Untold History of Class in America.
NYTimes review here.
Frank argues that the Democratic party―once “the Party of the People”―now caters to the interests of a “professional managerial class” consisting of lawyers, doctors, professors, scientists, programmers, even investment bankers.
NYTimes review here.
Chris Hayes. Twighlight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.
David Brooks’ comments on the current state of American elites here. This quote says its all:
Today’s elite is more talented and open but lacks a self-conscious leadership code. The language of meritocracy (how to succeed) has eclipsed the language of morality (how to be virtuous). Wall Street firms, for example, now hire on the basis of youth and brains, not experience and character. Most of their problems can be traced to this. (emphasis added)
We may not like the quaint paternalism associated with past elites, but implicit in Brooks’ contrast with today’s elite attitudes, paternalism has been replaced by a pure market logic of self-interest.
Matthew Desmond. Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City.
NYTimes review here.
Kathryn J. Edin and H. Luke Shaefer. $2.00 a Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America.
NYTimes review here.
Daniel Kahnemann. Thinking Fast and Slow. And for those who don’t want to read the must read opus, Michael Lewis’ recent biography and summary of Kahneman’s and his partner, Tversky’s work (The Undoing Project).
NYTimes review of Thinking Fast and Slow here.
There is growing data suggesting the political parties are stratifying along suburban-urban, white-ethnic, working class-more affluent, and low density population-high density population spectra.
At the Congressional district level, this barbell effect is quite clear. After the 2014 Congressional elections, the Congress bulged on two ends of the spectra.
Diversity & Education Levels and Party
Figure 1 shows the high correlation between education levels, level of minorities, and party alignment.
Population Density and Party
Figure 2 compares two time periods’ correlations of population density and party affiliation. In 1952, population density did not correlate with party preference. By 2012, population density (i.e., urban vs. suburban or exurban) strongly correlated with party preference.
Racial and Ethnic Diversity
The greatest racial and ethnic diversity exists on the coasts (see Figure 3) and, for the most part, in urban or high population density areas.
But the rate of change is greatest in heretofore non-diverse areas of the country – upstate New York, and the upper Great Plains (see Figure 4).
Change is scary. Populations undergoing multiple changes simultaneously have a lot to be scared about; but they may also misattribute the actual from perceived sources of their fear. I recommend this New York Times piece on White identity’s role in this election, quoted here in part:
Identity, as academics define it, falls into two broad categories: “achieved” identity derived from personal effort, and “ascribed” identity based on innate characteristics.
Everyone has both, but people tend to be most attached to their “best” identity — the one that offers the most social status or privileges. Successful professionals, for example, often define their identities primarily through their careers.
For generations, working-class whites were doubly blessed: They enjoyed privileged status based on race, as well as the fruits of broad economic growth.
White people’s officially privileged status waned over the latter half of the 20th century with the demise of discriminatory practices in, say, university admissions. But rising wages, an expanding social safety net and new educational opportunities helped offset that. Most white adults were wealthier and more successful than their parents, and confident that their children would do better still.
That feeling of success may have provided a sort of identity in itself.
But as Western manufacturing and industry have declined, taking many working-class towns with them, parents and grandparents have found that the opportunities they once had are unavailable to the next generation.
That creates an identity vacuum to be filled.
“For someone who is lower income or lower class,” Professor Kaufmann explained, “you’re going to get more self-esteem out of a communal identity such as ethnicity or the nation than you would out of any sort of achieved identity.”
Focusing on lost identities rather than lost livelihoods helps answer one of the most puzzling questions about the link between economic stress and the rise of nationalist politics: why it is flowing from the middle and working classes, and not the very poor.
While globalization and free trade have widened economic inequality and deeply wounded many working-class communities, data suggests that this year’s political turmoil is not merely a backlash to that real pain.
Yes, the Congress has become more polarized.